South Caucasus and Central Asia are drifting beyond Moscow’s control, Lebedieva says

By AI, Created 4:42 PM UTC, May 18, 2026, /AGP/ – Alona Lebedieva says new EU partnerships with Armenia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan show the post-Soviet space is moving away from Russia’s old “spheres of influence” model. The shift matters for Ukraine because every new trade, transport and energy link outside Moscow’s orbit weakens Russia’s leverage.

Why it matters: - The South Caucasus and Central Asia are becoming less dependent on Russia for security, trade and development decisions. - That shift weakens a core part of Russia’s regional power: the ability to use dependency as leverage. - For Ukraine, more countries reducing ties to Moscow can also reduce Russia’s ability to blackmail, block or dictate terms.

What happened: - The first EU–Armenia summit took place in Yerevan on May 12, 2026. - On May 5, 2026, the European Union and Armenia announced a Connectivity Partnership focused on transport, energy and digital links. - The EU ties the Armenia initiative to Global Gateway and the Cross-Regional Connectivity Agenda linking Europe with the South Caucasus, Turkey and Central Asia. - Alona Lebedieva, owner of Ukrainian industrial and investment group Aurum Group, said the region is moving beyond “spheres of influence” and toward more independent decision-making. - Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Armenia was being “drawn” into the EU’s anti-Russian orbit, and Reuters linked that reaction to rising tension between Moscow and Yerevan.

The details: - Armenia is still tied to Russian economic structures through the Eurasian Economic Union. - Lebedieva said Russia’s role as Armenia’s “sole guarantor” has already been broken. - The Nagorno-Karabakh aftermath exposed the limits of Russian security guarantees, according to Lebedieva. - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are expanding their options by deepening ties with the EU, China, Turkey, Gulf states and other partners. - Lebedieva said this shift often happens quietly through infrastructure, trade, investment, raw materials, energy, digital links and new partnership formats. - Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia and a key player in critical materials, transport, digital infrastructure and green transition efforts. - The European Commission calls Kazakhstan a strategic partner for sustainable transport, digital connectivity, critical raw materials, the green transition and governance reforms. - Uzbekistan has a large domestic market and aims to be an independent center of gravity rather than a buffer between Russia and China. - The IMF forecasts Uzbekistan’s real GDP growth at 6.8% in 2026, supported by reforms, investment, demand, remittances and high gold prices. - The first EU–Central Asia summit in Samarkand in 2025 upgraded ties to a strategic partnership. - At that summit, the EU announced a €12 billion Global Gateway investment package for transport, critical materials, digital connectivity, water and energy.

Between the lines: - The article frames Russia’s influence as increasingly conditional, not automatic. - That is a notable shift in the post-Soviet space, where Moscow long benefited from being the default external power. - Lebedieva argues that Russia’s war against Ukraine accelerated the reassessment of Moscow as a stability provider. - Countries that once viewed Russian presence as insurance now more often see it as a risk. - The EU is not replacing Russia or China outright, but it is offering new leverage points for regional governments.

What’s next: - Armenia is likely to keep balancing new EU ties against existing economic links to Russia. - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are expected to continue diversifying their foreign and economic relations. - Ukraine is likely to pursue deeper cooperation with South Caucasus and Central Asian states on secure routes, trade, industrial links, energy, agriculture, critical infrastructure and reconstruction. - The longer these countries build alternatives to Moscow, the harder it becomes for Russia to claim an unconditional right to shape the region.

The bottom line: - Russia still has influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, but the region is increasingly acting as a set of independent players rather than a captive sphere.